EFFECTS OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON AGRO-PASTORAL LIVELIHOODS AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN THE LOWLANDS OF MARAKWET WEST SUB-COUNTY, ELGEYO MARAKWET COUNTY, KENYA.

Abstract

Rainfall variability is increasing causing new challenges for rural livelihoods and adaptation strategies applied by rural households as well as policy-makers in adjusting policies to changing rainfall conditions. There is need therefore to understand adaptation strategies that will assist in developing climate-resilient livelihoods especially at the local levels of society. This study examined the effects of rainfall variability on livelihoods and adaptation strategies among agropastoralists in the lowlands of Marakwet West Sub-County between 2010-2015 since during this period, the rainfall reliability could not be predicted. The specific objectives were: To establish effects of rainfall variability on agro-pastoral livelihoods in the lowlands of Marakwet, examine local and institutional adaptation strategies and establish constraints to adaptation. The study will increase the understanding of the local community on the actual effects of rainfall variability on their daily activities and enable them to choose the best strategies from the available options. The study adopted a descriptive survey design that incorporated both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The study examined the interaction between rainfall variability; effects; adaptation and constraints based on researcher’s own conceptual framework where the intervening variables were controlled by including them in the study. Cluster sampling was used to select two locations that formed the area of study and simple random sampling was used to select respondents for household survey. Purposive sampling was used to identify the key informant from Kerio Valley Development Authority (KVDA), a regional institution serving in the area whose input is relevant to the study. Primary data was collected using structured questionnaire, interview schedules, two focus group discussions and field observations, while secondary data was collected from published and unpublished document sources. Data analysis was done with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 and the results presented in tables, graphs and charts for easy interpretation. The data from interview schedules was analyzed using content analysis, described and summarized. Results show that rainfall variability has negatively affected livelihoods causing food shortages (82%), poor crop yields (72%), water scarcity (64%), reduced livestock holdings (60%), loss of pasture (54%) and loss of jobs (50%). Consequently, households have adapted both on-farm and off-farm. At farm level, the major strategies are crop diversification into crops of commercial value and drought-resistant varieties (80%), reduced livestock numbers (78%), timing farm operations (76%), diversifying stock (60%), reducing size of cultivable land (48%) and (37%) opted to migrate to seek water and pasture. Major off-farm strategies were observing early signs of weather (50%), terminating schooling for children (39%), diversify income sources into charcoal burning (34%) and to sand harvesting (31%) while (27%) opted to migrate to look for alternative sources of income. However, most of these strategies were ad hoc responses and thus insufficient while some like charcoal burning and sand harvesting posed serious threats to the environment. KVDA provided technical assistance, dissemination of rainfall information, financial support and capacity building in environment-related issues. The major constraints to adaptation were low literacy levels (39.7%), poor infrastructure (26.5%), financial constraints (13.9%), over dependence on aid (10.6%), cultural preferences (6.6%) and natural disasters (2.6).The study recommends increased awareness on rainfall variability effects and support to local strategies.